S&P 500 - 1973

The following graph plots the year-to-date performance of the index for 1973 compared to the probability calculated by a random walk model.

Initial Value: 118.05 Hist. Volatility: 0.92% Annual Drift: 7% Final Value: 97.55 Percentile: 8%
Click on the image for the high resolution version.

The high to date and low to date prices of the stock plotted against a random walk model for 1973 (what's this?).